Every player, graded.
Every miss, published.
Baseball runs tonight: all 270 bats scored for home runs, hits and total bases. Football and hockey are modelled the same way, on the same rule — every probability gets checked against what actually happened, and the misses are published at the same size as the hits. No locks, no touts. The board beside this is tonight’s real output.
Live output, not a mockup. % is the calibrated chance he goes deep; beside it is the break-even price you’d need to beat.
The numbers behind the numbers
Measured against graded outcomes, not asserted. Re-checked nightly on the track record.
Ranking skill on real outcomes across 12,089 graded forecasts. 0.50 is a coin flip; anything durably above it is a genuine, repeatable read.
The best-graded tenth of the board homers at 19.2%. The worst tenth homers at 6.5%. That spread is the edge, stated plainly.
Every prediction across 72 scored slates, joined back to the box score. Hits and misses both.
When it says 20%, it happens about 20% of the time. Measured over the last 14 graded slates. Probabilities are re-fit weekly — and only applied when the new fit still beats its own baseline.
How a grade gets built
Ingest
Statcast contact quality, season and platoon splits, every starter’s pitch arsenal, live weather and park factors, and the confirmed lineup — pulled and rescored as cards drop.
Score
Nine weighted models led by Power at 50%: barrel rate, HR-per-PA, exit velocity. Then form, platoon matchup, how hittable the arm is, how the hitter handles that arm’s specific mix, park, weather, lineup slot, bullpen exposure.
Calibrate
The 1–99 score becomes a real probability through a curve fit to actual outcomes — so the percentage means what it says instead of being a vibe attached to a number.
Grade
Every completed game is pulled from the box score and joined back to what the model predicted. That record is public, including the days it was wrong.
What’s inside
Every hitter scored for HR, hits and total bases, with a fair break-even price on each. Grouped by game so a whole stack reads at once.
Barrel rate, exit velo, platoon splits, the arm he’s facing and how he handles that arm’s pitch mix — with percentile context on every number.
The starters getting barreled, with their full arsenal broken out by usage, whiff rate and damage allowed per pitch type.
Slate-wide hitter-vs-arsenal mismatches — where a bat’s per-pitch damage lines up against exactly what he’ll see tonight.
Live wind and temperature folded into every HR grade, all 30 park factors, and a wind compass oriented to the real ballpark.
A public calibration table and full game log. Not a screenshot of one good night — the entire record.
Same rule everywhere: publish the misses
Home runs, hits and total bases, plus a blended score, on every hitter of every slate — 12,089 graded player-games behind the numbers, and the receipts are two sections up.
Open the board →OPENS SEPTEMBER 9FootballAnytime touchdown, built on the chain that produces one: snaps, touches, red-zone and goal-line role. AUC 0.648 on 2025, a season the fit never saw, across 24,110 player-weeks.
See the model card →Shots, points, assists and goals — five markets fitted and held out, the best at AUC 0.758. A sixth cleared the highest AUC in the whole product and was refused, because a skater’s own rate beat it. It opens when it has a record to show you, not before.
Not open yet“I’m not selling you winners. I’m handing you the exact board I use — every number shown, every miss on the record — and letting you make the call.”
Research and modelling output, not betting advice. Play within your means.